Will Delhi's Air Pollution Be Under Control By September's G20 Summit?
What new data and Delhi's AQI calendar shows
Even before India took over the G20 presidency last December, the focus has been on its air pollution crisis. Its cities dominate the list of the world’s most polluted. Delhi has had the unfortunate tag of being the world’s most polluted capital.
But is the pollution being brought under control? And how bad is it likely to be this year especially when the leaders of the world’s most powerful and richest countries arrive for the G20 summit in September? The answers can be found in some data recently made available and also in the national AQI (air quality index) calendar.
Summit Venue for the Delhi G20 Summit to be held on 9-10 September, 2023.
As G20 foreign ministers started arriving in Delhi for their meeting on 1 March, an air pollution report for the first two months of 2023 made bleak reading. The capital had no days with ‘good’ or ‘satisfactory’ AQI.
The average AQI for January was 311 which is ‘very poor’ and causes respiratory illness on prolonged exposure’. In February the average AQI was 237 for which is ‘poor’ and which causes breathing discomfort to most people on prolonged exposure. These are warnings as per India’s National AQI. For vulnerable people like those with asthma or the elderly, the warnings kick in at much lower levels of pollution.
But the pollutant to really watch out for is PM 2.5, the fine particulate matter which some scientists and doctors prefer to track. This is usually made up of sulphates, nitrates, black carbon, ammonium and even primary aerosols like arsenic, lead, calcium and so on. A product of vehicular emissions, power plants, industrial manufacturing, biomass burning among other processes, PM 2.5 particles defeat the human body’s defences and settle deep in the lungs from where it spreads to other organs and parts. Long term exposure has been linked to devastating health impacts ranging from asthma and chronic lung damage to strokes, cancers and mental health.
How Rainfall Cuts Delhi’s Air Pollution
Above and below: June to September has the lowest air pollution and highest rainfall
Source: https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-precipitation-Rainfall-inches,New-Delhi,India
As the two charts above show the months with the heaviest rainfall are those with the lowest air pollution in Delhi. August has the highest rainfall at about 250 mm and the lowest air pollution, with PM 2.5 at less than 34 micrograms per cubic metre. Across the past four Septembers, PM 2.5 averaged 41 micrograms - that is about 8x the WHO’s safe limit, worrying no doubt but still way better than the annual average of 93 micrograms or 18x above the safe limit.
Another data source for an idea on what to expect, take a look at the national AQI calendar (see below) which shows the air quality recorded at the monitoring station closest to the G20 summit venue. The last four years shows the air quality was at a ‘satisfactory’ green level in two and a ‘moderate’ yellow on 9-10 September, the dates of this year’s summits. But in none of these years was the AQI the cleanest level that is ‘good’ green. ‘Good’ air days are rare in Delhi and usually happen because of natural, cleansing factors like heavy rain or wind.
However, can Delhi rely on rainfall to cut air pollution this year as well? Experts are concerned about the very real possibility of lower rainfall in this monsoon. So the trend of relatively clean days may or may not hold true this time on the dates of the G20 summit.
It is of course hard to forecast AQI on any particular day, especially months ahead. But as air pollution experts have demonstrated that to reliably improve air quality, air pollution has to be cut at source. Various governments have begun to do that - most recently by ordering the closure of coal-fired industrial units around Delhi.
More needs to be done. For instance, delivering on a much-delayed 2015 government programme to cut emissions from coal-fired power plants across India and far more public transit in Delhi. In this mega city only one in seven owns a vehicle but it has the highest number of vehicles of any Indian city and vehicular emissions are estimated to be over 40% of air pollution.
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