Six Months Of Climate Change Hell - But See What's Missing
From the warmest March to wettest August. From export assurances to export bans. Plus, missing: ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’ in a monthly, economic report card by the government.
Six months ago, at the beginning of March, 2022, there were a series of heatwaves across India. It was the warmest March in 122 years. Even the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh wasn’t spared. The spell of heatwaves, linked to climate change, lasted two straight months, just ahead of the wheat harvest, and then continued after a brief break. Wheat production was hit, down an estimated 3%. The government banned the export of wheat in a u-turn.
Yet this already seems like ancient history. Since March, India and almost every region in the northern hemisphere has been devastated by not just extreme but record-breaking weather events.
Sticking with India, the monsoon in both western-central and southern India received well above normal rain, 20% or more, till mid-September. In the west, the desert part of Rajasthan was 61% above normal and in the south, Tamil Nadu, was 78%.
To make sense of these numbers let’s, as always, turn to the scientists. They see a common reason between excess rainfall here and the terrible Pakistan floods as well as the drought in eastern states of UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. The reason is that the monsoon has largely remained along an axis - the monsoon trough - along central India (see quotes at the end). In Pakistan, southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan experienced their wettest August ever recorded, according to World Weather Attribution. At least 1,500 people were killed, and losses of an estimated $ 2.3 billion at least.
In India, the heatwave was blamed by Mother Dairy, a dairy major, for its hike in milk prices mid-August because of a fodder shortage. By this time, attention was focused on prices. A trifecta of crisis - the Ukraine War, Covid pandemic, and climate change-triggered extreme weather - hit countries around the world. In early September, the Indian government, worried about rice production possibly falling by about 8-9% because of a drought in the four eastern states and to some extent because of crop diversification, took action. It didn’t wait for the paddy harvest, in sharp contrast to waiting after the wheat harvest. Among the controls brought in was a ban on broken rice, used as poultry feed as well as a hefty 20% tax on non-basmati rice exports. India’s export controls on both wheat and rice (of which it’s the largest exporter) was met with dismay globally with many nations struggling with food supply shortages.
A skewed monsoon in India: Drought and excess rain side-by-side. [Situation as of 23 September, 2022.]
Source: mausam.imd.gov.in
Source: Agriculture ministry’s press conference briefing on the rice policy change.
Economists weighed in, echoing climate scientists. They forecast the ‘erratic monsoon’ will continue to drive up food prices. Inflation remains stubbornly high, consistently above the central bank, RBI’s comfort limit of 6% for several months at a stretch now.
Given the un-deniability of climate change wreaking havoc on the economy, one would expect an all-hands-on-deck approach. Oddly, the monthly economic report put out by the Department of Economic Affairs does not mention ‘climate change’ nor ‘global warming’ at all. A basic ctrl-F search for these phrases reveals this for the reports of March to August, the very six months of record-breaking climate events. These reports are often seen as report cards on the economy. There are, however, two mentions of heatwaves in the context of lower food production and the effect on inflation.
It’s not as though others in the government specially those with a predominant focus on the economy aren’t concerned about the crisis. The Finance Minister spoke recently at an Indo-US summit about this; other reports from the annual Economic Survey of India, the RBI, even market regulator SEBI all debate climate policy and action.
Elsewhere in the world, weather records tumbled in these six months. China was hit by a devastating, 81-day long heatwave, Britain crossed 40°C for the first time, rivers dried up revealing corpses of mafia victims, dinosaur footsteps, ancient towns, World War 2 warships and bombs, temples and much else (see the amazing visuals here). Power prices are up sharply in many parts of the world, even in gas-rich Norway because a drought depleted reservoirs for hydropower.
Heatwave reveals dinosaur tracks in Texas, USA.
Source: Dinosaur Valley State Park - Friends
The Climate-Ukraine-Covid triple whammy has shaken many. Neither covid nor the war can continue indefinitely. Governments and policy makers appear to be more ready than ever before for genuine and rapid climate action. The hurdles are many and there is no option but to act.
A deeply researched piece on Climate Change. Thank you for bringing this to our attention. The urgency of climate action cannot be overstated.