G20's Response to “Insufficient” Report Card, Sets Stage for Dubai's COP28
Greece, Hong Kong are reminders that time is running out for climate action. IPCC & G20 put out two documents in two days. Here's how this sets the stage for Dubai.
Much has happened on climate change in the last few days, not least climate change itself as seen in Greece and Hong Kong.
There have also been two important documents by the G20 and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in the span of 48 hours which chalk out the climate action status.
The world has just passed the half-way mark in a 15-year race to rapidly cut emissions and, as things stand now, it is losing the race. We’re 92 months from the 2015 Paris Agreement starting line and have 88 months till the 2030 deadline.
At the landmark Paris climate conference, leaders accepted what the scientists were saying and agreed to self-determined targets or Nationally Determined Contributions to limit global warming. Scientists say green-house gas emissions should be reduced drastically (at least 43% over 2019 levels) by 2030.
The aim is to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times. Beyond that the impacts of climate change will be worse than what we’ve seen recently - worse heatwaves, flooding and irreversible ecological damage, scientists have warned.
The IPCC’s first Global Stocktake (GST) warns that the window to limiting warming to 1.5 °C within reach is closing rapidly. Global emissions to date are neither in line with the global temperature goal of the Paris Agreement nor are they aligned with longer-term emission reduction goals.
Greek Tragedy is Not Limited to Greece
In the past week, Greece has had three years’ worth of rainfall in two days. Cars have been swept into the sea, 1/4th of the country’s agricultural capacity vanished in 48 hours.
In Hong Kong, it rained over 158 mm in just one hour, breaking an 1884 record for heaviest rain in an hour. Roads and subways turned into torrential rivers, emergency services rushed to rescue those stranded. Damage has been pegged at $100 million.
In Delhi, close on the heels of the hottest September day in 85 years, the G20 countries which include the world’s biggest economies and polluters put out a declaration, just a day after the IPCC - UN-backed Inter-governmental put out its GST.
“Insufficient” says IPCC’s Report Card, G20 responds
The GST is essentially a report card of whether countries have done enough to reduce emissions since the breakthrough Paris Agreement. Countries haven’t but they’re trying, says the GST (sounding like many a school report card). “Global ambition and implementation to address climate change is insufficient.”
The G20 in its declaration accepts that action has been insufficient, and countries will try to do better. “We note with concern that global ambition and implementation to address climate change remain insufficient to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
From Delhi to Dubai, G20’s assurance
The G20 declaration acknowledges the scientists’ warnings, devoting many of the 83 paragraphs to climate change and sustainable growth. The countries which account for over 80% of the global GDP have promised to “contribute to a successful conclusion” of the first global stocktake in Dubai later this year at the COP28 (the 28th Conference of Parties, an annual UN climate conference.)
They’ve “reiterated” their resolve to “pursue further efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C” noting the IPCC’s assessments. But differences persist on the flashpoint issue of reducing fossil fuel use, the burning of which is the biggest contributor to global warming.
Peaking Differences
The IPCC says global GHG emissions need to peak between 2020 and 2025. It acknowledges emissions have peaked in developed and some developing countries, but global emissions have not yet peaked.
However, the G20’s Delhi Declaration states that, “This does not imply peaking in all countries within this timeframe; timeframes for peaking may be shaped by sustainable development, poverty eradication needs, equity, and in line with different national circumstances.”
This reflects a widely held argument especially among developing countries - the global south - that developed nations are most responsible for contributing to climate change, and that developing countries need affordable energy (read coal and other fossil fuels) to develop and pull millions out of poverty.
Nations like China, India and Indonesia have new coal-fired power plants either under construction or planned; even some European countries have fallen back on coal specially after the fuel crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Scientists point out the world can’t afford this and there’s an urgent need for a road map to start reducing fossil fuel use. The lifetime emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure will exceed estimates for keeping limiting global warming to 1.5 °C within reach.
The Bill
The bill for a just energy transition by 2030 is estimated at $29.9 trillion, more than the United States’ current GDP. The G20 declaration says developing countries will need $5.8-5.9 trillion before 2030 to implement their NDCs. In addition, it will cost $4 trillion annually for clean energy technologies to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Where will the money come from? Fourteen years ago rich, developed nations promised $100 billion a year towards this. They’re likely to finally meet that commitment this year, but it’s a tiny fraction of the trillions needed.
The IPCC has called for removing fossil fuel subsidies, which will free up trillions of dollars, and which it estimates can reduce carbon dioxide and GHG emissions by 1-4% and 10% by 2030 by de-incentivising consumption of these fuels. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) research shows how fossil fuel subsidies globally rose by $2 trillion over two years to $7 trillion in 2022. This is forecast to rise even further to $8.2 trillion.
Nowhere to Run
CO2 in the atmosphere has risen from 402 ppm (particles per million) at the time of the Paris Agreement to 422 ppm now. The globe was warmer by 0.95°C then, over pre-industrial times, and it’s now at 1.2°. Many expect the 1.5° mark to be breached well before 2030.
As a separate group of scientists pointed out a few days ago, there’s no place safe from the effects of global warming.