COP28 Starts With An Avalanche of Warnings, But Will Leaders Ditch Incrementalism?
Under the scanner: Political will, the US, GDP loss and air pollution... and, as always, fossil fuels and climate finance.
The UN’s 28th Conference of Parties (COP) on climate action has just opened in Dubai and there have been a ton of developments already inside and outside the mega gathering. In this newsletter the aim is to list a few snackable news bites and links to some awesome reading and writers, plus snapshots from inside Dubai’s Expo City.
Hottest year
Setting an ominous tone at this global warming meet is the news that 2023 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record, that is over 170 years. And the average global mean has most likely crossed 1.4°C for the year.
And there’s more, the World Meteorological Organisation reminds us:
Greenhouse gas levels continue to increase
Record sea surface temperatures and sea level rise
Record low Antarctic sea ice
The concentration of greenhouse gases is growing despite solid science and even governments agreeing that climate change is already devastating communities and ecosystems globally.
Finally Launched - Fund to Cope with Loss and Damages
On the upside on the 30th the COP presidency, UAE, announced an agreement on a Loss and Damages Fund. Many are seeing this as a promising start. The fund which will be initially housed in the World Bank is to assist developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.
For one, it sets a collaborative tone for an extremely contentious conference (read why this one’s particularly contentious) which are traditionally prone to incrementalism. However, the starting amount amount for the fund is a only few hundred million dollars. The losses and damages last year, as climate policy wonks point out, was $1.5 trillion. But at least it’s a start and many countries and other donors will contribute generously.
Source: X
The biggest pledges are $100 million by hosts UAE, a major fossil fuel producer, and a similar amount by Germany. The US has contributed $17 million; a fairly modest contribution from the world’s biggest polluter. Ironically, John Kerry, the US climate envoy, said ahead of this contribution that he had “high hopes” from this COP28 given the losses and damages that “Mother Nature has been screaming at us.”
GDP Loss in India
Yet another new report points out the extent of GDP losses due to global warming’s effects.
The total GDP loss to India in 2022 is 8% compared to a world without climate change. The global GDP loss is 1.8% of GDP, or $1.5 trillion, in 2022.
Air Pollution at the ‘Health’ COP
COP28 is also the first ‘health’ COP. The impact of climate change on health is being raised by many health organisations like the WHO and GHCA.
One of the things that is being spoken about is air pollution, which is now beginning to be addressed side-by-side with climate change as twin issues.
Air pollution is a concern in India. Delhi has just seen its worst November since 2019. Its average PM 2.5 level was over 240 micrograms/cubic metre, up almost 18% over five years ago. That’s 48 times the WHO’s long-term ‘safe’ limit. The biggest jump in PM 2.5 levels in November 2023 compared to November 2019 was in Bhopal, where it shot up by 25.3%
In fact, November 2023 was the most polluted November in 5 years (2019-2023) not just in Delhi but also Bhopal, Chandigarh and Gandhinagar.
Ahead of COP28, Vital Strategies and ARNEC reported how air pollution particularly harms children, affecting lung and brain development and growth. Children’s lungs are in the essential stages of development in the first few years of life, making them especially vulnerable to damage. It is linked to adverse cognitive outcomes in children, and to ADHD, anxiety and depression later in life.
How air pollution harms children - a new report by Vital Strategies and Asia-Pacific Regional Network for Early Childhood (ARNEC).
The conference has 11 days to go and decades of little climate action to make up for.